Sports Betting as an Investment
It is often said by novice gamblers that 55% isn’t even winning after taking into account the juice they have to pay on losses. This is emphasized by DrBobsports.com which is a great resource. So please visit the site.
I’m not sure what kind of math those guys are using, but I didn’t need to major in statistics to tell you that it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports betting at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%) – and odds better than that are readily available online these days. I can also tell you that even 55% winners is an outstanding investment.
Let’s say you had $10,000 to invest during 4 months of football season (or could not afford to lose more than $10,000 in a season) and were planning on playing 180 games or so over the course of the season (NFL and College). If your expected win percentage is 55% over those 180 games, your expected win-loss record would be 99-81 for a profit of +9.9 units. Calculating units is simply subtracting the losses from the wins and then subtracting an additional 10% of your losses to take into account the 11 to 10 odds that the sportsbook is getting. In this case, 99 wins and 81 losses would be +9.9 units (99 – 81 – 8.1 = +9.9). Of course, as in any game of chance, there is variability in the actual results and just because you have won 55% in the past and expect to win 55% in the future doesn’t mean that you’re going to win 55% this upcoming season. In the case of an expected win percentage of 55% over 180 games, the standard error is 6.67 games, or 14.0 units (6.67 x 2.1 units – with each additional win you also save 1.1 units on your losses). I need to calculate the variance to figure out how much of my bankroll I can safely wager on each game during the season to accommodate potential negative variance while having with very little chance of exhausting my bankroll (of course, we’re all hoping for a season with the variance on the positive side).
If I want to limit my chance of losing my bankroll in a given season to just 1%, then I could safely bet to win $440 a game given a 55% expected win percentage over 180 games with a $10,000 bankroll (I’ll spare you the statistical calculations). If I achieve a 55% season on 180 games for a profit of +9.9 units, then I would profit $4356 – which is 9.9 times $440. While a 55% bet is only a 5.5% investment per bet (.55 - .45 – .045 = .055) it is a much more profitable investment over the course of a season, in which a series of per game investments act like compound interest. In this case, my $10,000 initial bankroll is now $14,356 after a 4 month season, which is a 43.56% investment. And that is only at 55%, which most amateurs aren’t that impressed with.
A season with an expectation of 57% winning wagers over 180 bets would allow me to safely bet to win $665 a game with only a 1% chance of losing my bankroll during the course of the season. My expected units won for 180 bets at 57% is +17.46, which is (.57 - .43 - .043 = .097) times 180 games. So, my expected profit would be $665 times 17.46 units, which is $11,611 profit off of my $10,000 initial investment (a 116.11% gain).
Obviously the greater win percentage that you can achieve, the better the investment. And playing multiple sports, meaning more plays, and being able to achieve that win percentage will equate to more profits. If you are able to maximize your investment (larger wager) on plays with the greatest percent of winning, you will be able to have higher win percentage for certain key plays that will return more money.
I hope this essay has enlightened you as to the reality of sports betting as a very good investment and that you can now accept the fact that 55% winners in sports betting leads to a very good profit with even very conservative money management.
I’m not sure what kind of math those guys are using, but I didn’t need to major in statistics to tell you that it only takes 52.4% winners to break even in sports betting at the standard 11 to 10 odds (that’s 11 wins and 10 losses, which is 52.4%) – and odds better than that are readily available online these days. I can also tell you that even 55% winners is an outstanding investment.
Let’s say you had $10,000 to invest during 4 months of football season (or could not afford to lose more than $10,000 in a season) and were planning on playing 180 games or so over the course of the season (NFL and College). If your expected win percentage is 55% over those 180 games, your expected win-loss record would be 99-81 for a profit of +9.9 units. Calculating units is simply subtracting the losses from the wins and then subtracting an additional 10% of your losses to take into account the 11 to 10 odds that the sportsbook is getting. In this case, 99 wins and 81 losses would be +9.9 units (99 – 81 – 8.1 = +9.9). Of course, as in any game of chance, there is variability in the actual results and just because you have won 55% in the past and expect to win 55% in the future doesn’t mean that you’re going to win 55% this upcoming season. In the case of an expected win percentage of 55% over 180 games, the standard error is 6.67 games, or 14.0 units (6.67 x 2.1 units – with each additional win you also save 1.1 units on your losses). I need to calculate the variance to figure out how much of my bankroll I can safely wager on each game during the season to accommodate potential negative variance while having with very little chance of exhausting my bankroll (of course, we’re all hoping for a season with the variance on the positive side).
If I want to limit my chance of losing my bankroll in a given season to just 1%, then I could safely bet to win $440 a game given a 55% expected win percentage over 180 games with a $10,000 bankroll (I’ll spare you the statistical calculations). If I achieve a 55% season on 180 games for a profit of +9.9 units, then I would profit $4356 – which is 9.9 times $440. While a 55% bet is only a 5.5% investment per bet (.55 - .45 – .045 = .055) it is a much more profitable investment over the course of a season, in which a series of per game investments act like compound interest. In this case, my $10,000 initial bankroll is now $14,356 after a 4 month season, which is a 43.56% investment. And that is only at 55%, which most amateurs aren’t that impressed with.
A season with an expectation of 57% winning wagers over 180 bets would allow me to safely bet to win $665 a game with only a 1% chance of losing my bankroll during the course of the season. My expected units won for 180 bets at 57% is +17.46, which is (.57 - .43 - .043 = .097) times 180 games. So, my expected profit would be $665 times 17.46 units, which is $11,611 profit off of my $10,000 initial investment (a 116.11% gain).
Obviously the greater win percentage that you can achieve, the better the investment. And playing multiple sports, meaning more plays, and being able to achieve that win percentage will equate to more profits. If you are able to maximize your investment (larger wager) on plays with the greatest percent of winning, you will be able to have higher win percentage for certain key plays that will return more money.
I hope this essay has enlightened you as to the reality of sports betting as a very good investment and that you can now accept the fact that 55% winners in sports betting leads to a very good profit with even very conservative money management.
posted by Jeffrey Gardner at 9:45 PM
7 Comments:
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