Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Surging time.... 1 ... 2... 3...

Today was the 3rd best day since November 19th, so I can not complain. I would have liked to have seen Dallas win in OT, the South Florida Bulls blew an 11 pt lead and lost in double OT, and I had two bad ML hockey picks in the canadians (Calgary/Edmonton), which were late additions. I did however hit some nice plays for plus money, like buying the Lakers spread down a .5 pt, and my parlay and teaser of the day. I posted earlier yesterday that I wanted to try to get up to 15 units by the end of the week, so this is a very nice start.

League

Event

Type

Odds

Line

Net

NBA

Dallas Mavericks vs Bucks

Spread

+2

-106

Push

NBA

LA Lakers vs SA Spurs

Spread

+12.5

105

1.05 unit

NHL

New Jersey/Ottawa

Parlay

ML

132

1.32 unit

NHL

Carolina Hurricanes vs ATL

ML

SU

-118

.85 unit

NCAAB

Illinois vs UNC

Spread

+1

-102

1.47 unit

NHL

Colorado vs Edmonton

ML

SU

-109

(1 unit)

NHL

Calgary vs Predators

ML

SU

100

(1 unit)

NCAAB

S Florida vs Fla Int (2nd H)

Spread

+3

101

(1 unit)

NCAAB

Illinois vs UNC (2nd H)

Total

o77

-110

(1 unit)

NBA

Charlotte vs Kings (2nd H)

Under

u99.5

-108

1 unit







Here are the daily figures:
Sides: 3-3-1 (50.00%) Totals: 1-1 Teasers: 1-0
Crucial Play: winner, +1.47 units
ROI%: 25.41 %Growth: 4.87
Net Profit: 2.98 units

There are the plays for today thus far. The only play larger than 1 unit is on the Illini tonight. The Illini are my second crucial play of the year. I am also trying out the NBA super teaser. It is 7 pts and a 4-teamer pays 1 units wins 1.4 units.

1. (Spread) Dallas Mavericks (+9) vs Milwaukee Bucks for Game (-107)

2. (Spread) Los Angeles Lakers (+19.5) vs San Antonio Spurs for Game (-104)

3. (Spread) Orlando Magic (+14.5) vs Chicago Bulls for Game (-104)

4. (Spread) Charlotte Bobcats vs Sacramento Kings (-0.5) for Game (-104)

Since I had a little bit of time, I have included previews of some of the games:

Dallas (10-3) at Milwaukee (6-6) 8:00 pm EST MILWAUKEE (Ticker) - Jason Terry and the injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks hope to continue their winning ways when they meet the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday.Despite playing without swingmen Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse, the Mavericks rallied for a 93-91 victory over the Toronto Raptors on Monday.Terry knocked down the game-winning layup at the buzzer and Dirk Nowitzki chipped in 29 points and 11 rebounds for Dallas, which has won eight of its last nine despite being beset by a slew of injuries to wing players.Howard is day-to-day with an ankle injury and and Stackhouse is out with a sore right knee.Milwaukee has dropped four of its last five to fall to .500 for the first time this season.The Bucks are coming off a tough, 85-76 loss to the defending Eastern Conference champion Detroit Pistons on SaturdayMichael Redd scored 23 points and Jamaal Magloire grabbed 17 rebounds for Milwaukee, which is 3-2 this season at Bradley Center.

I like getting Dallas as a dog, regardless if they are having a bit of trouble as of lately.

L.A. Lakers (5-7) at San Antonio (10-3) 8:30 pm EST SAN ANTONIO (Ticker) - The teams that have combined for six of the last seven NBA championships meet for the first time this season Tuesday when the San Antonio Spurs host the Los Angeles Lakers.After the Spurs won the 1999 title, the Lakers won three straight before San Antonio captured the crown in 2003 and also earlier this year.In Friday's 106-99 loss to the Chicago Bulls, two-time NBA Most Valuable Player Tim Duncan scored 24 points to lead five Spurs in double figures and grabbed 11 rebounds as San Antonio lost for the first time at home this season.Manu Ginobili scored 16 points and Nick Van Exel came off the bench to add 15 for San Antonio, which lost to the Bulls for the first time in 10 meetings.In his return to the Lakers, coach Phil Jackson has seen mixed results from his team. The Lakers have lost seven of 12 and are in last place in the Pacific Division.Kobe Bryant tried to carry the Lakers on his shoulders Sunday by scoring a league season-high 46 points against the New Jersey Nets. Despite rallying from an 18-point deficit, the Lakers suffered a 102-96 overtime loss.A seven-time All-Star, Bryant leads the league in scoring (34.2) and is averaging nearly 34 shots from the floor in his last five games.San Antonio, which was 38-3 at home last season, has won the last five meetings against the Lakers.

The Lakers will fight for this and I'll take +12 pts anyday.

Carolina (15-7-1) at Atlanta (10-12-2) 7:00 pm EST

ATLANTA (Ticker) - The Carolina Hurricanes try to settle a score when they begin a six-game road trip with the second contest of a home-and-home series with the Atlanta Thrashers on Tuesday. Although they are in first place in the Southeast Division, the Hurricanes have dropped four of their last five contests, allowing 22 goals during that stretch. Andrew Ladd and Aaron Ward scored for Carolina in Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Thrashers. The Hurricanes failed to score on six power-play attempts and are 2-of-24 with the man advantage in their last four contests.
Justin Williams has four goals and six assists in his last seven games for Carolina, which is off to the best 23-game start in franchise history. Ilya Kovalchuk collected two goals and two assists and Marian Hossa added the go-ahead tally in the third period for Atlanta, which has 12 goals in its last two victories. The Thrashers also handed the Hurricanes their first home loss with a 9-0 triumph on November 12, ending Carolina's nine-game winning streak. Kovalchuk scored twice and Mike Dunham and Adam Berkhoel combined for the shutout.

This is a tough one since, ATL has owned the much better (record-wise) Carolina team. I think they get it done tonight though.

No. 12 Illinois (5-0) at North Carolina (3-0) 9:00 pm ESTCHAPEL HILL, North Carolina (Ticker) - Revenge will be on the mind of No. 12 Illinois when it visits North Carolina in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Tuesday. Despite tying the NCAA record for single-season victories (37), the Illini had their dream season end on a down note when they lost to the Tar Heels in the national game, 75-70, on April 4. James Augustine scored 18 points and was named the Most Valuable Player of the South Padre Island Invitational on Saturday as Illinois improved to 5-0 with a 77-57 triumph over Rutgers.Dee Brown and Rich McBride were named to the All-Tournament Team for the Illini, who are 68-9 under coach Bruce Weber. Despite losing its top seven scorers from last year's squad, North Carolina has won all three games by an average of nearly 26 points. However, the Tar Heels will be facing their first ranked opponent this season.Freshman Tyler Hansbrough scored 15 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for his first career double-double and David Noel added 14 for North Carolina in Friday's 83-66 victory over UC-Santa Barbara.North Carolina has a 21-game winning streak at the Dean Smith Center and has taken four of the six previous encounters against Illinois.

Dee Brown baby. I think the Illini get it done nicely tonight!


Finally

So I finally got my money back with a low-juice book. I can not stress the importance of finding a low-juice bookie because I will save about 60%.

Today's bets will be coming later this afternoon around 5PM EST.

Current progress

It feels good to get out of the red. There were some tough games this weekend but no big hits were taken. Last night was a good turn of events.

10 day update:

Up 11+ units. I am pretty happy with this so far since I set my weekly goal at 5 units. I should be up around +14 or so because of parlays. Two were very close and solid but I think it is important that they are avoided when the games seem especially tough. From November 2nd-November 18th (16 days), I had banked 16.88 units. If this week goes well, I will be right on that pace to hit about 30% growth. The goal now is obviously to string a few nice days together and try to get up near 15 units by the weekend.

Monday, November 28, 2005

Mariucci done

Steve Mariucci came to the Detroit Lions with a winning NFL record, a penchant for offense and raised expectations.

He leaves as just another in a long list of coaching failures.

SportsNation on Mariucci
Mariucci
Mariucci
At one point, Lions head coach Steve Mariucci did have fans on his side. He posted a 77 percent approval rating after a 17-3 Week 1 win over division rival Green Bay. Since then, however, the ratings show a displeased Detroit SportsNation contingent.

Mariucci's Lions did not win again until Week 5 and 7, when he posted ratings of 55 percent and 52 percent, respectively. Week 7 was the last time Mariucci received better than a 50 percent weekly rating. Even after the Lions' most recent win in Week 10, Mariucci only received a 38 percent rating. Take away Weeks 1, 5 and 7 and Mariucci never rose above a 38 percent rating.

He finished his tenure as Lions head coach with an 18 percent approval rating.
Mariucci's week-by-week graph.

After two-plus seasons and a 15-28 record, Mariucci was fired Monday after he was unable to turn around a franchise with one playoff victory since 1957.

The Lions promoted defensive coordinator Dick Jauron to succeed him on an interim basis.

"We started off this season with high expectations," team president Matt Millen said. "We have underachieved as a football team."

Millen hired both Mariucci and his predecessor, Marty Mornhinweg, and drafted or signed most of the current players. Since Millen took over in 2001, Detroit is an NFL-worst 20-55.

Despite the results, the former NFL linebacker and TV analyst was given a five-year extension before this season.

Millen said he accepts accountability for Detroit's record during his four-plus seasons, but said a coaching change was necessary.

"This is a brutal business and at times, good people suffer a cruel fate," he said.

Millen also fired offensive line coach Pat Morris and tight ends coach Andy Sugarman, and demoted Ted Tollner from offensive coordinator to tight ends coach. Greg Olson will call plays as the team's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, starting Sunday at home against Minnesota.

Jauron said his first inclination was to not accept the job.

"It's hard for me to stand up here in this position because Steve is a friend," said Jauron, who had a 35-46 record as Chicago's head coach from 1999-2003.

After Detroit lost 27-7 to Atlanta on Thanksgiving to fall to 4-7, reports swirled that the team was considering firing Mariucci. When Mariucci was not dismissed during the weekend, some thought his job was safe for the final five games of the regular season.

"I was angry after that game," Millen said. "It was disturbing to watch and I didn't want to make a decision based on anger. We wanted to take our time, go through it logically, and think everything through."

The Lions have lost four of five games since a solid start put them atop the NFC North with the Chicago Bears. The team has collapsed on and off the field with players failing to produce and some bickering with one another and questioning the coaches' game plans.

Offensive tackle Jeff Backus said players were not notified of the firing until a previously scheduled team meeting was held Monday night.

"Something had to give, I guess," Backus told The Associated Press. "It's not my job to judge whether Mariucci did a good job or bad job, but we're in a bottom-line business and our bottom line hasn't been very good."

Mariucci has more than two years remaining on the $25 million contract he signed in 2003. The Michigan native came to the Lions from San Francisco, where he was fired with a 60-43 record over six seasons.

Mariucci was cut some slack in the past because the team he inherited was crafted by Millen, but expectations were high heading into his third season.

"If we win 10 or 11 ballgames and make the playoffs, it would make us happy and make the fans happy," Mariucci said before the season.

Mariucci's agent, Gary O'Hagan, declined comment when reached Monday night.

Detroit's quarterback situation also hurt Mariucci's chances for success.

Joey Harrington, the third overall pick in 2002, has failed to be consistent throughout his career. The Lions signed 35-year-old Jeff Garcia to push or replace Harrington, but he has been nagged by injuries and an inability to throw deep passes.

The Lions' porous offensive line has added to their passing- and running-game woes while a decent defense has been hampered by being on the field too long, and by injuries.

Millen, who was fined $200,000 by the NFL because he didn't follow the NFL's minority hiring policy when he hired Mariucci, said he would follow league guidelines when he searches for a permanent coach.

Jauron, Detroit's defensive coordinator the past two seasons, was fired in 2003 after four losing seasons in five years with the Bears. He was selected as NFL coach of the year during his lone winning season in Chicago.

"We need to take these next five weeks, and we need to play ... and see what we can get out of it," Jauron said. "I don't have plans other than the next game."

Jauron began his NFL career as a fourth-round pick of the Lions in 1973 after starring at Yale. The defensive back and kick returner, who played in the 1975 Pro Bowl, spent his first five seasons in Detroit.

espn insider

Lets make it a good one

Well folks, a bit of a mini-slump the last few days dropping about 3 units over the last 3 days. Gotta get out of the funk with a positive day and some solid plays. I'm making some solid plays today, with no crazy NFL plays :), so hopefully it will be a good one!

Event

Type

Odds

Line

Net

Mavericks vs Toronto

Spread

-8

-110

(1.5 units)

Toronto vs Panthers

ML

SU

-145

1.03 units

Orlando/Boston

Total

o186

-110

(1.5 units)

Orlando vs Boston

Spread

+5

-110

1.36 units

Pitts +20, MNF o35, Mavs pk, magic +13

Teasers

-

-150

(1.5 units)

Parlay

Parlay

-

-

(0.5 unit)

New Jersey vs Denver (2nd half)

Spread

+8

-105

1.43 units

New Orleans/Golden State

Total

u192

-110

1.36 units

Detroit vs Kings

ML

SU

105

1.57 units





1.77 units


Here are the daily figures:
Sides: 5-1 (83.33%) Totals: 1-1 (50.00%)
Parlay: 0-1 Teaser: 0-1
ROI%: 14.12 %Growth: 2.96
Net Profit: 1.77 units

The parlay is Mavs ML, Orlando +5, OSU ML, Maple Leafs ML, Red Wings ML, Orlando/Boston over. Pays about 8.7 units.

Sunday, November 27, 2005

NFL

All I can really say is that there were a lot of close games this weekend. Jets/Skins/Seahawks blew late 4qtr leads. LA came back only to lose in OT. Tough day! Was in the positive over a unit until the late plays.

Event

Type

Odds

Line

Net

New England/KC u49

Total

u49

-110

.91 units

Chargers vs Redskins

Spread

+3.5

-110

(1 unit)

Vikings, Bengals Parlay

Parlay

SU

-125

.8 units

Bears vs Tampa Bay

Spread

-3

-110

(1 unit)

Carolina Panthers vs Bills

Spread

-3

-125

1.8 units

Giants vs Seahawks

Spread

-4.5

100

(1 unit)

Giants vs Seahawks (2nd half)

Spread

-4

100

1 unit

NO vs Jets

Spread

-2.5

-110

(1.5 units)

New Jersey vs Lakers

Spread

-2

-110

(1.5 units)





(1.69)

Saturday, November 26, 2005

Saturday, Saturday

Event

Type

Odds

Line

Risk

Iowa State vs Kansas

Spread

-3

-110

1.5 units

Tulane vs South Miss (2nd half)

Total

u24

-110

1 unit

FSU vs Florida (2nd half)

Spread

+3

-125

1.5 units

Utep vs SMU (second half)

Spread

-3.5

-115

1.5 units

Notre D -9.5, Fresno -9.5, Tor +13

Teasers

-

180

1 unit

Toronto vs Golden State

Spread

+9

-110

1 unit

Utah Utah State vs NewMex (2nd half)

Spread

-2

-110

1.5units





9 units



Iowa State vs Kansas
Why to watch: There's a ton on the line for both teams, especially since Colorado lost to Nebraska. A Husker win and an Iowa State victory over Kansas puts the Cyclones in the Big 12 title game against Texas. A KU win over Iowa State puts the Jayhawks in a bowl, most likely the Fort Worth Bowl. If Colorado beats Nebraska, Iowa State still has to win to make sure it doesn't slide in the pecking order of bowl teams. 8-3 is a lot more attractive than 7-4. The hottest Big 12 team outside of Austin, Iowa State has won four straight to turn around its Big 12 season after a rough 0-3 start. KU has had two weeks off to lick its wounds after getting drilled 66-14 by Texas.

Why Iowa State might win: Outside of the stunning explosion against Nebraska, the KU offense has done absolutely nothing in Big 12 play, and can forget about running the ball on the KU run defense that's allowing fewer than 100 yards per game. KU is 104th in the nation in turnover margin while Iowa State is fifth; KU isn't going to get the breaks it needs to beat a team playing as well as the Cyclones are. In its last four games, Iowa State hasn't allowed a team to score more than 17 points, while KU has scored more than 17 once since September 17th.

Who to watch: ... Bret Meyer can stay hot. It's no coincidence that the return of Hicks three games ago coincided with the improved play of Meyer. In his last four games, Meyer has thrown nine touchdown passes and no interceptions highlighted by a 371-yard, four score passing day at Texas A&M. He has found his groove and is playing like the quarterback many expected he'd become.

What will happen: Iowa State is playing far too well on both sides of the ball for Kansas. The Jayhawk defense will rebound from the Texas game, but the offense won't hold up its end of the bargain.
----
Toronto (1-12) at Golden State (8-6) 10:30 pm ESTOAKLAND, California (Ticker) -- The results have not been positive, but the Toronto Raptors are knocking on the door of their first road win.The Raptors will try to avoid a winless four-game road trip when they finish the swing Saturday night at Golden State.After posting its first win of the season at home last Sunday, Toronto began the trip with a 90-82 loss at Phoenix, followed by a pair of setbacks decided by one possession.In a 106-104 setback at Sacramento on Friday, Raptors swingman Jalen Rose missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer that would have lifted his club to its first road victory.Chris Bosh led six players in double figures with 22 points and Toronto scored 85 through the first three quarters before losing its lead in the fourth.While the Raptors are stuck with the worst record in the NBA, the Warriors have been the symbol of mediocrity of late, exchanging wins and losses over their last 10 games.Golden State rallied from an 11-point deficit and posted a 94-90 win at Utah on Friday. Jason Richardson scored 29 points and Derek Fisher made a 3-pointer with 24 seconds left to give the Warriors the lead for good.Since winning eight straight meetings with Golden State, Toronto has lost four of the last six matchups.

"My problem lies in reconciling my gross habits with my net income." Errol Flynn